You're Not Broken, Your Brain Is Just Predicting

Written by Bonolo Mophosho, Counselling Psychologist

Understanding the Predictive Brain and Rewiring Your Emotional Patterns

A compelling podcast episode that I recently watched, of The Diary of a CEO, featured Dr. Lisa Feldman Barrett. She introduces the viewers and listeners to the concept of “The Predictive Brain”.

Dr. Barrett has worked diligently for decades as a researcher in neuroscience and psychology, and in her 2017 book "How Emotions Are Made: The Secret Life of the Brain” she speaks to how emotions are not inherent, automatic reactions, but rather are constructed by the brain.

She details her findings on how the brain, to save on a “budget” of energy resources, uses its internal models and predictions to construct fitting emotions in response to situations.

I believe this concept of the predictive brain can be profoundly liberating for us all.

In the conversation, Dr. Barrett unpacks how the brain is not a passive observer of the world but is rather an active predictor; using memories from the past and cues from the present to anticipate what’s coming next.

This prediction process plays a central role in shaping our emotions, perceptions, and behaviours. Even before we’re fully conscious of them.

In every given moment, your brain is hard at work behind the scenes (grinding endlessly, the precious thing), stitching together past experiences and present data (taken in from your senses) to guide your responses.

It's doing this to keep you safe, and that we appreciate, however, sometimes it does so a little too eagerly. And while much of this happens without your awareness, certain emotionally charged moments offer us a chance to catch the brain in the act and begin to change the script.

Of course, there are many processes the brain oversees without our conscious effort: breathing, digestion, circulation.

But when it comes to emotional reactivity, particularly in relationships or high-stress scenarios, there are windows of opportunity to step in, interrupt the pattern, and rewire the brain’s habitual response. This is particularly crucial for when your brain uses data that is outdated.

Think for example, on traumatic experiences that happened in the past. Our brain is so efficient in thereafter ensuring we are forever ready to protect ourselves from similar stress, damage, heartache, or wounding. The key is it does so- even in cases where the same scenario (or similar) is NOT to happen again.

It is useful for that period, that time, and that experience (even if it is multiple) to be ready and shielded up for whatever perceived onslaught.

But there is something to this - waking up to the reality of your escape once you have crossed over, and laying down the shield. You can, and should, help your brain to do so too.

This is where cognitive reappraisal comes in. 

The idea of cognitive reappraisal, grounded in cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT), is simple but powerful.

Cognitive reappraisal is the modification of our thoughts, perceptions and perspective on a stimuli/situation that caused a certain emotional response. It is premised on the CBT foundational notion that how we think influences how we feel, and how we feel shapes how we behave. Our thoughts often stem from long-held core beliefs, formed in early life through experiences that taught us what is safe, what is threatening, and what to expect from others and the world.

Similarly, intensely impactful experiences can steer our perceptions in particular directions. Perhaps you’re by now recognising that the directions you’ve been steered in by your perception, have ultimately caused more distress than safety. You need to know this- you can change that.

When a situation feels emotionally overwhelming, it’s likely not just the present moment you're reacting to.

This is especially so when its intensity is exacerbated- they do say “when it’s hysterical, it’s historical”, however, in any emotional experience your brain is using prediction based on what is remembered from the past to inform your response.

Essentially it fills in the blanks, drawing from a database of your past experiences. And most times, even if there aren't necessarily "blanks", to save on energy resources, it swiftly decides what the sensory input means (based on past data) to lead to a quicker reaction. 

The good news is- these predictions are not set in stone! Neural pathways are in fact malleable (what a saving grace!).

We have the power to teach the brain to respond differently. By consciously changing our interpretations of situations, challenging old beliefs, and introducing new, safer (and kinder to ourselves) ways of seeing the world we can completely transform the old into new POV’s.

This does take time, care and also intentionality. When your body is already in fight-or-flight, however, the first priority is certainly de-escalation. Soothing the physiological symptoms of distress, e.g. through deep breathing, grounding movement, or mindful awareness, is essential.

This is the bottom-up approach: tending to the body first.

Paired with top-down strategies like cognitive reframing (trying out different thoughts), curiosity, and compassion toward your inner narrative (it does come from somewhere, a need that once was, so show them love), you can create space for real, healing change. These moments are opportunities to rewire how your brain connects certain sensations or contexts with past danger, and to begin writing a different route for an outcome.

Some thoughts must be gently challenged. Not all of them are true, and not all of them are useful. Think on, for example, when a flicker of movement sends a jolt of fear down your spine, and when you realize it was just a shadow, not a threat, you breathe a sigh of relief. That’s your brain’s reappraisal in real time. It’s in micro-moments of realization like this that healing can begin; where you gently nudge and usher your perception into directions that are kinder, safer, but above all more accurate (bringing in new/different perceived data can help this).

You're not broken. You're not weak. Your brain has simply been doing its job - predicting what it thinks is most likely to happen, based on what it’s seen before. But now, with awareness, compassion, and new tools, you can begin teaching it a new way- in the moment-to-moment, and day-to-day. Allow yourself to challenge your brain to see differently and believe differently.

Let your brain grow! Let it embrace a new season - even when its tendency may be to hold on to seasons of the past. Why not give letting go of the old a try?

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To read more about Bonolo and the services she offers, click on the link below. Read more